BY TRISTAN SASSE
If you thought Wild Card Weekend was an exciting one, then the Divisional Round definitely didn’t disappoint you. Philadelphia held on with a late goal line stand and Jacksonville put up 45 points in Pittsburgh. Additionally, Minnesota blew a 17-point lead before ending the game with a 61-yard walk-off receiving touchdown. Lastly, Tom Brady and the Patriots, well, they do what Tom Brady and the Patriots do best in January: win playoff games in Foxborough.
With the Conference Championships already happening this weekend, here’s what to expect.
AFC Conference Championship
No. 1 New England Patriots vs. No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, January 21 at 2:05 PM on CBS
How they got here: As the top seed in the AFC, New England received a bye in the Wild Card Round and dominated the Tennessee Titans 35-14 this past weekend. On the other hand, Jacksonville won a 10-3 defensive battle against the Buffalo Bills and then turned the tables and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 45-42 shootout.
What to watch for: The Jaguars will be appearing in their third AFC championship game in franchise history and be seeking their first Super Bowl appearance ever. Additionally, the franchise is one of four teams to never appear in the Super Bowl – the Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Houston Texans are the other three. Jacksonville made it to this point in a multitude of ways. In the Wild Card Round, the Jaguars relied heavily on their defense and came away with a win, despite putting up their fewest points (10) in a victory this season. At Pittsburgh, it was a different story. Jacksonville tied a season-high, by scoring 45 points. They also gave up 42 points though, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to throw for 469 yards and five touchdowns. The Jaguars defense also gave up 545 total yards. Jacksonville did force two turnovers though and had over 150 rushing yards, including three rushing touchdowns by rookie running back Leonard Fournette.
Meanwhile, New England will be appearing in their seventh straight conference championship game, an NFL record. For the Patriots, Tom Brady is one win away from his eighth Super Bowl appearance. After a slow start against the Titans, New England showed exactly why they’re the top seed in the AFC. At one point scoring 35 unanswered points, Tom Brady threw for 337 yards and three touchdowns to cruise by Tennessee. Even though Brady is 40, he’s far from being done, and definitely has his eyes on another Lombardi Trophy. It’s difficult to ever count the Patriots out, especially in a home playoff game. Since 2007, five AFC championships have been played at Gillette Stadium. New England is 4-1 in those games and they’ll be at home again on Sunday.
Bottom line: I didn’t give the Jaguars a chance against the Steelers and they proved me wrong. I knew they were a talented team but didn’t think they’d be able to perform on the big stage. Blake Bortles looked far more calm against Pittsburgh than he did against Buffalo, and he’ll need to keep building confidence for the Jags to stand a chance in Foxborough. Experience hasn’t seemed to make a major difference this postseason, as three quarterbacks are starting in a conference championship for the first time. With that being said, Tom Brady is currently playing some of the best football of his career though, which may have a major impact in the AFC championship game.
Prediction: Patriots 31 Jaguars 24
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NFC Conference Championship
No. 1 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 2 Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, January 21 at 5:40 PM on FOX
How they got here: As the top two seeds in the NFC, both teams received first-round byes for the Wild Card Round. In the Divisional Round, Philadelphia defeated the Atlanta Falcons 15-10, while the Vikings stunned the New Orleans Saints 29-24 on the final play of the game.
What to watch for: The Eagles will be making their seventh NFC championship game, and first since the 2008 season. Statistically, the Vikings have the best defense in the NFL, but Philadelphia has one of the best offenses in the league. Atlanta’s defense held the Eagles to 15 points in Philadelphia last week though, and Minnesota has proven to have an even better defense. Even though the Eagles will be without Carson Wentz, Nick Foles may be considered one of the best backup quarterbacks in recent memory. He led Philadelphia to a victory over the reigning NFC champion Falcons last weekend, even though they weren’t favored to win. Counting the postseason, Foles is 3-0 as a starter this year, and with all the weapons he has offensively, there isn’t a reason they don’t have a chance at home on Sunday. Also, the Eagles are capable of making plays on both sides of the ball, and to have a chance this weekend, their defense will need to have another impressive performance.
On the other side, Minnesota will be appearing in their ninth NFC championship game, and first since the 2009 season. For the Vikings, their defense has received praise all season long, and rightfully so. Minnesota allowed the fewest points (252) in the NFL this season, an average of fewer than 16 points per game. They also gave up 10 points or less six times this season, including seven points against the NFL’s highest scoring team, the Los Angeles Rams. Whether it be offense, defense, or special teams, the Vikings know how to win. Minnesota has only lost once since week five. Luckily, the Vikings defense won’t be facing Drew Brees this weekend, who was able to pick apart Minnesota’s defense in the second half of the Divisional Round, but they will still be going up against a proven winner in Foles. At the end of the day, if the Vikings allow 24 points like they did against New Orleans, they may not be able to overcome it this time.
Bottom line: Both teams have an arsenal of weapons on both sides of the ball. These may also be two of the most evenly matched teams in the entire league. Both teams will be starting quarterbacks who were backups at the start of the year. Additionally, each team has solid receiving groups, rushing attacks and reliable defenses. These teams really do look similar and had identical records overall (13-3), at home (7-1), on the road (6-2), in their division (5-1), and in their conference (10-2) during the regular season. The deciding factor of this game will be whoever performs better defensively.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Eagles 17