By Jonathan Shorman
Tribune News Service
TOPEKA — The coronavirus will peak earlier than previously expected in Kansas and Missouri and result in fewer deaths, according to updated projections from the University of Washington.
The fresh forecast from the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows the stay-at-home orders issued in both states will, if strictly followed, blunt the virus’s impact.
But cellular location data and anecdotal evidence suggest Kansans and Missourians could do a better job social distancing, raising the possibility the models are painting an overly hopeful picture.
Hospital use is now expected to peak in Kansas and Missouri on April 19. Last week, the model predicted Kansas would reach peak hospital use on April 27 and Missouri on May 18.
Kansas deaths are expected to peak on April 23 at 10 per day and in Missouri on April 18 with 12 deaths per day. The model predicts the states’ healthcare systems will not be as stressed as first expected.
Kansas will ultimately need 94 ICU beds out of the 278 beds it has available. In Missouri, 112 of 558 available ICU beds will be needed.
Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman called the projections “good news” both on the national and state level.
“We as a small state, our numbers are coming down a bit as well, which is encouraging in terms of the projections,” Norman said at a news conference.
The updated projections show that across the country, the need for beds, ICU beds and ventilators is less than previously expected.
Researchers said the revision reflects a “massive infusion of new data” from some of the largest states, including New York, Florida and California.
“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” Christopher Murray, the institute’s director, said in a statement.
The researchers assume, however, that “implementation and adherence” to social distancing measures “is complete,” according to a page of frequently asked questions. It’s an assumption no state can perfectly achieve.
Norman said the University of Washington models are a “little optimistic” on social distancing. Kansas imposed a stay-at-home order last week.
Cellphone location data compiled by Unacast shows that from March 28 through April 1, average mobility and non-essential visits rose among residents. Mobility and non-essential visits decline again April 2, the last day for which data has been posted.
Unacast data shows a similar trend in Missouri, with mobility and non-essential visits increasing during the same time period before falling April 2. The data doesn’t reflect the state’s stay-at-home order, which was announced Friday and went into effect Monday.
The company currently gives both states a social distancing score of D.
Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla, a Democrat running for Congress, told CNN last week one of the “biggest challenges” she faces are residents who don’t understand the gravity of the situation.
“We’re trying as much as we can, but again the numbers here don’t seem to faze people the way that they should,” De La Isla said.
While Kansas and Missouri and its cities have so far avoided becoming hotspots like New York and New Orleans, the number of reported cases continues to climb.
As of Monday, Kansas had 845 cases and 25 deaths. Missouri on Sunday had 2,367 cases and 34 deaths.
Steve Stites, chief medical officer at the University of Kansas Health System, told reporters Monday he doesn’t know for sure when the peaks will occur. He suggested Missouri could experience its peak in mid-to-late May, while Kansas might be earlier in the month.
“I think most of the things we’re seeing in Kansas are pushing the peak more into really the first part of May now,” Stites said during a virtual news conference.